Past research has shown that people often underestimate the amount of time necessary to complete tasks. This optimistic bias has been consistently demonstrated in many work-related settings and most of the research has focused on why this happens. However, a recent series of studies (Buehler et al., 2010) investigated whether optimistic prediction times have the ability to improve actual completion times, and if so, whether this applies to all types of tasks.
THE RESEARCH STUDY
The researchers found that optimistic completion time predictions can have a positive impact on actual completion times, but it depends largely on the type of task or project. For instance, the effect of optimistic predictions on completion times appears to be more favorable when tasks can be completed in a single session (e.g., short computer tutorial, writing a memo) versus when tasks require multiple steps to be completed at different points in time (e.g., launching an employee engagement survey). Interestingly, the researchers also found that the tendency to underestimate completion times was more prevalent for tasks that require multiple sessions.
PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS
Ultimately, the authors concluded that optimistic completion time predictions can be useful for tasks or projects that require one shot. However, optimistic completion time predictions appear to have little power for tasks that require multiple sessions over multiple time points. Additionally, although predictions don’t always have a positive impact on completion times, they do to have a positive influence on task or project start times. Thus, the authors conclude that completion time predictions initiate action early on, but apparently lose their power over time, especially for longer tasks that require many sessions or steps.
Buehler, R., Peetz, J., & Griffin, D. (2010). Finishing on time: When do predictions influence completion times? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 111, 23-32.
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