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Methods Minute: Why Organizational Science Should Consider Bayesian Methods

Topic: Research Methodology, Statistics
Publication: Organizational Research Methods
Article: The time has come: Bayesian methods for data analysis in the organizational sciences
Authors: Kruschke, J. K., Aguinis, H., and Joo, H.
Reviewer: Neil Morelli

If you’re like me you’ve probably heard grumbling about the limitations with traditional null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). Or, if you’re like me, you’ve probably grumbled about it yourself. Kruschke, Aguinis, and Joo say you’re not alone and argue that organizational science should adopt Bayesian methods instead of NHST for data analysis. (Unfortunately, organizational science has yet to jump on the bandwagon; out of 10,000 articles published over a 10 year period, only 42 used Bayesian methods!)

If Bayesian methods are so great, how do they work? Kruschke et al. goes over a full demonstration using a multiple linear regression example that is definitely worth reviewing. But as a general overview, Bayesian methods are the mathematically correct way of “reallocating credibility” across the parameter values of a prior distribution using observed data. This reallocation results in a posterior distribution, which offers the most complete information allowable by the observed data.

To help explain, I’ll borrow an analogy given by the authors that Bayesian methods are kind of like Sherlock Holmes. To solve a case, the famous detective starts with known information (prior distribution) and deduces the most likely culprit (posterior distribution) using observation (available data). The evidence he observes make some suspects more credible than others.

Ok, but why use Bayesian methods? To the authors, Bayesian methods provide a vast improvement over the problematic traditional NHST methods. Here are few examples: Bayesian methods use previous information to improve inferences whereas NHST does not, and Bayesian methods are able to accept the null hypothesis, which drastically lowers the chances of a false positive. As an added bonus you also get a complete distribution of reasonable R² values.

So, all the stat jargon aside, Bayesian methods should be considered because they provide the information researchers are often seeking in a fuller and more confident way, and can also be used with the data-analysis methods researchers are already familiar with. Bottom-line? According to the authors, Bayesian methods are not a silver bullet, but they do offer new opportunities for organizational science to develop more precise models and conclusions.

Kruschke, J. K., Aguinis, H., & Joo, H. (2012). The time has come: Bayesian methods for data analysis in the organizational sciences. Organizational Research Methods, 15(4), 722-752.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

 

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Still Human: What Biases Remain in Virtual Interviews?

Topic: Staffing, Interviewing
Publication: Computers in Human Behavior
Article: The effects of avatar appearance on interviewer ratings in virtual employment interviews
Authors: Behrend, T., Toaddy, S., Thompson, L.F., Sharek, D.J.
Reviewer: Neil Morelli

On the morning of your big interview you get up extra early to make sure the hair is perfect and the clothes are pressed because let’s face it, first impressions are everything. But what do you do if your interview is online?

In the effort to save time and money on selecting the best candidate, companies have been increasingly turning to new voice and text technologies for conducting interviews. However, the amount of social information that can be exchanged via phone or text is low, so some companies have experimented with the use of online avatars during computer-mediated interviews to help humanize these systems. But, do interviewers regard avatars similarly as real people, and do avatars elicit the same interviewer biases?

Behrend and colleagues conducted a laboratory study where students were asked to view an avatar image while reading a “typical” interview transcript for a retail position. The authors wanted to see if manipulating the attractiveness of the avatar, and whether the gender of the avatar was applying for a stereotypically similar job, had any impact on the perceived performance of the interviewee or the screening decision made by the participant.

The authors found that higher levels of avatar attractiveness were related to both perceived performance and screening decision, but the match between the avatar’s gender to a stereotypical job of the same gender did not moderate this relationship.

As in a real face-to-face interview, human interviewers are still biased by the physical attractiveness of the interviewee, even though the interviewee in this case is digital. As companies turn to using digital avatars to assist online interactions with job candidates, customers, and team members, it’s useful to note that the same biases are still at play. What’s more concerning is that unlike a face-to-face interaction the user can manipulate his or her avatar to an even greater extent to play to these biases—an important point to note when using these avatars in a selection context.

Behrend, T., Toaddy, S., Thompson, L. F., & Sharek, D. J. (2012). The effects of avatar appearance on interviewer ratings in virtual employment interviews. Computers in Human Behavior, 28, 2128-2133.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

 

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Center For Creative Leadership Workshop

 

What does it take to make the grade?

Topic: Selection
Publication: Perspectives on Psychological Science (2011)
Article: The hungry mind: Intellectual curiosity is the third pillar of academic performance
Authors: Sophie von Stumm, Benedikt Hell, and Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic
Reviewed By: Scott Charles Sitrin, M.A.

What predicts academic performance? Previous research has shown that both intelligence and effort do. Anything else? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

In addition to intelligence and effort, von Stumm, Hell, and Chamorro-Premuzic found that curiosity also forecasted academic achievement. In order to come to this conclusion, the investigators reviewed the literature of existing studies that sought to predict academic accomplishment, and they found that intelligence, effort, and intellectual curiosity determine individual differences in intellectual success. In the reviewed studies, IQ was the typical indicator of intelligence, level of conscientiousness was the measure of effort, typical intellectual engagement captured the amount of curiosity, and grade point average served as the commonly used gauge of academic performance.

These results suggest that one more characteristic – curiosity – has been identified as a valid indicator of future intellectual achievement. Since these characteristics – intelligence, effort, and curiosity – forecast academic performance, it seems possible that they will also predict attainment in other domains such as business, and therefore, they should be considered by companies when deciding which employee to hire.

Von Stumm, S., Hell, B., & Chamorro-Premuzic, T. (2011). The hungry mind: Intellectual curiosity is the third pillar of academic performance. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6(6) 574–588.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

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Center for Creative Leadership

We are thrilled to welcome Center for Creative Leadership as an I/O AT WORK sponsor! And for those of you in Atlanta, check out this workshop CCL is offering November 15th:

Emotional Intelligence: Is it Always Good? (IO Psychology)

Topic: Emotional Intelligence, Job Performance, Teams
Publication: Journal of Applied Psychology (JUL 2012)
Article: Emotional Intelligence, Teamwork Effectiveness, and Job Performance:
The Moderating Role of Job Context
Authors: C.I.C.C. Farh, M. Seo, P.E. Tesluk
Reviewed By: Ben Sher

Are you in touch with your inner feelings about emotional intelligence? Do you love the idea? Hate the idea? Does it make you angry? In any case, there is good news. New
research by Farh, Seo, and Tesluk (2012) helps bolster our understanding of emotional intelligence by identifying situations in which it is useful and situations in which it may be detrimental.

Emotional intelligence is the somewhat controversial but intriguing idea that people can monitor feelings to achieve positive workplace outcomes. People with a high level of emotional intelligence have the ability to successfully identify their own feelings as well as the feelings of other people. They allow this knowledge to strategically guide their behavior, which may result in workplace productivity. But does emotional intelligence always lead to positive results? Research suggests that it may depend on the circumstances.

This study used a sample of 212 young professionals and their supervisors, and found
that emotional intelligence was related to improved job performance only when the job
involved a high level of managerial work. When jobs included little managerial work,
emotional intelligence was actually associated with lower job performance.

Why did this happen? The researchers propose that this relationship is due to trait
activation theory. This theory suggests that any connection between traits and job
performance is more likely to occur when environmental cues in the workplace show
that the particular trait is valued. For example, if we find that conscientiousness is
related to better performance at certain types of jobs, we’d be more likely to observe
this relationship if employees were working in an organization that consistently
espoused the importance of being careful and organized.

In a managerial context, interpersonal communication and people skills are valued.
In this setting, emotional intelligence assumes increased importance, and results in
better teamwork and better job performance. If the job does not involve managerial
duties, people skills are not as highly valued. The authors explain that in this situation,
people with high levels of emotional intelligence may overemphasize the importance of
emotional cues in situations where they are not meant to be important.

So whether you love it or hate it, emotional intelligence seems to play a role in
workplace success. Research that defines the limitations of that role equips
professionals with the ability to decide if emotional intelligence is useful in a specific
context. Now that should make us all feel good.

Farh, C.I.C.C., Seo, M., & Tesluk, P.E. (2012). Emotional intelligence, teamwork
effectiveness, and job performance: The moderating role of job context. Journal of
Applied Psychology, 97(4), 890-900.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

 

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The Caution of Credit Scores: They May Do More Harm than Good (IO Psychology)

Topic: Selection
Publication: International Journal of Selection and Assessment (JUN 2012)
Article: Demographic Variables and Credit Scores: An Empirical Study of a Controversial Selection Tool
Authors: Jeremy B. Bernerth
Reviewed By: Thaddeus Rada

IO psychologists and human resources practitioners who are frequent visitors of I/O at Work may recall a recent post that reviewed an article examining the use of social networking sites (SNWs) as a screening and selection tool. This article concluded that although they may at times contribute useful information, the risks associated with using SNWs in the hiring process currently outweigh the benefits. However, the use of SNWs is not the only controversial selection tool that has attracted research attention in recent years. The current review focuses on another of these controversial selection tools: credit scores (cue scary organ music).

In a recent paper in the International Journal of Selection and Assessment, Jeremy Bernerth examined the relationship between credit scores and a number of important demographic variables. Many of these variables, such as minority status and marital status, are particularly important, given their protected status by the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. Of the five demographic variables that Bernerth examined, at least four of them appear to be important predictors of credit scores, suggesting that there may be differences in credit scores based on an individual’s membership in a wide array of demographic groups. In particular, Bernerth found that minority individuals tend to have credit scores that are substantially lower than nonminority individuals; thus, the use of credit scores may lead to adverse impact.

Given these findings, it appears that hiring managers and other human resources personnel should use great caution (and ideally avoid) using credit scores as a selection tool at the present time. Certainly, research on the use of credit scores, including the identification of ways in which credit scores may be used more “safely,” is likely to continue. As such, practitioners should “stay tuned” for additional research on credit scores, and caution against organizations’ use of credit scores for the time being.

Bernerth, J. B. (2012). Demographic variables and credit scores: An empirical study of a controversial selection tool. International Journal of Selection and Assessment, 20, 242-246.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

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What Do You Need to Create an Innovative Workforce? (Human Resource Management)

Topic: Creativity, Selection, Business Strategy
Publication: Human Resource Management Review
Article: Hiring an innovative workforce: A necessary yet uniquely challenging endeavor
Authors: Hunter, S.T., Cushenbery, L., & Friedrich, T.
Reviewer: Neil Morelli

Apple. Google. Facebook. Some companies are synonymous with innovation—and their success demonstrates how important innovation is in today’s fast-changing marketplace. In Hunter, Cushenberry, and Friedrich’s recent review article, innovation is defined as successfully implemented creativity that is both novel and useful. Because the most innovative organizations are often the most successful, selecting and managing talent that have a penchant for innovation can be a huge competitive advantage. In light of this, Hunter and his colleagues described the characteristics that best predict creativity and innovation, and the selection processes and performance criteria used to build an innovative workforce.

Remember, innovation isn’t just creativity; it’s also the successful implementation of that creativity. Thus, building the most innovative workforce means first selecting individuals that have the greatest creative potential (those with the right knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics; KSAOs) then ensuring that these employees have the appropriate climate, rewards, recognition, leadership, team processes, and resources.

To summarize the characteristics of a creative person, the authors found that creative employees should have domain specific and broad knowledge bases—this allows them to bring two previously unrelated concepts together. They also need creative processing skills (i.e., identifying and evaluating potential solutions to problems) coupled with inherent abilities such as intelligence, seeing more than one solution, relating remote concepts, and seeing how a previous problem is related to the current one. Creative people are also open to new experiences, driven, and ambitious.

If these are examples of people with creative potential, how should organizations go about selecting them? The authors argued that self-reports may be useful for capturing the more stable dispositions such as personality and motivation, whereas biodata, assessment centers, situational judgment tests, and interviews can predict creative performance by capturing a range of innovation-related KSAOs. Speaking of creative performance, Hunter and his co-authors discussed some of the challenges with thinking about creativity as a form of employee performance, such as the need to use coworkers to assess performance for a particular employee. Indeed, building a creative workforce is a complicated but profitable process, which will undoubtedly require some creativity of its own.

Hunter, S.T., Cushenbery, L., & Friedrich, T. (2012). Hiring an innovative workforce: A necessary yet uniquely challenging endeavor. Human Resource Management Review, doi:10.1016/j.hrmr.2012.01.001.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

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Predicting the Future with Situational Judgment Tests (IO Psychology)

Topic: Job Performance, Assessment, Selection
Publication: Journal of Applied Psychology (MAR 2012)
Article: The Validity of Interpersonal Skills Assessment Via Situational JudgmentTests
for Predicting Academic Success and Job Performance
Authors: F. Lievens, P.R. Sackett
Reviewed By: Ben Sher

You’re a newly minted doctor. Your overly-anxious patient just spent an evening on Google. Now he thinks that his medical knowledge rivals yours despite your decade-plus of rigorous training. Naturally, he refuses to accept your proscribed treatment and questions your credentials. How would you handle the situation? Tough one, isn’t it? Well, don’t worry; it’s only a test—a situational judgment test. According to new research by Lievens and Sackett (2012), when these tests are given to medical school
applicants, they can predict job performance many years later.

Situational judgment tests are often given to prospective new hires. They ask test takers how they would respond to possible scenarios they might later face on the job. Typically, a situation is presented in written form, and test-takers choose between several options of how they would respond. Experts determine which response is most appropriate, which in turn allows us to predict who might succeed at the job.

In this study, the researchers investigated a situational judgment test given to a large group of medical school applicants. The situations in the test were presented on video. Trained actors performed common scenarios that were designed to test interpersonal
skills. These skills, which are important for success as a doctor, consisted of building and maintaining relationships, as well as communication skills. Test-takers were faced with scenarios that required listening, conveying bad news in a sensitive manner, and, yes, dealing with the anxious patient who refuses to listen to doctor’s orders.

Okay, so what did these tests predict? Interestingly, these tests successfully predicted performance during internships and performance during post-graduation careers almost a decade later. This was true even though doctors may have trained to improve specific interpersonal skills in the meantime. Still, those with high scores prior to beginning medical school were more likely to succeed many years later.

What does this mean? First, if you know how to coax that nervous patient into taking his meds, perhaps you may want to consider a career change. You already have a leg up on being a successful doctor. Next, this study underscores the importance of interpersonal skills, even for complex technical jobs such as doctors, and reminds us that training in interpersonal skills may not be a perfect substitute for identifying job
applicants who already have strong interpersonal skills. Finally, this study lends further legitimacy to situational judgment tests. If these tests can tell us who will be a good doctor before day one of medical school, just imagine what they can do in other lines of work.

Lievens, F., & Sackett, P.R., (2012). The validity of interpersonal skills assessment via situational judgment tests for predicting academic success and job performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 97(2), 460-468.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

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Go with the Flow or Buck the Trend? (IO Psychology)

Topic: Change Management, Culture, Decision Making
Publication: Academy of Management Journal
Article: Fools breaking out: The role of symbolic and material immunity in explaining institutional non-conformity
Authors: J. M. W. N. Lepoutre & M. Valente
Reviewed By: Katie Bachman

How do those innovative companies do it? They stay on the cutting edge, seem invulnerable to the status quo, and break out of the doldrums of regular old marketplace goings on. We’re getting a few steps closer to understanding how an organization can embrace a culture of change and innovation and it comes from this article using a sample of organizations from the Flemish ornamental horticulture sector. Go figure.

“I’m not involved in Flemish ornamental horticulture,” says you. “No, wait, listen. It gets good,” says I. This research used a very traditional market (an institution, really) that has recently been presented with changes reflecting the global movement toward eco-friendliness. Some organizations have embraced and even sought out change, while others are acting like those two old men from the Muppets. What is it about an organization that makes them willing to step out of convention and get down with Mother Nature (or whatever the change might be in your organization)?

Immunity! It’s not just for medicine any more. Lepoutre and Valente identified two types of carriers (note the medical jargon) to which people, and by extension organizations, can become immune: symbolic and material. Symbolic carriers are all of those rules and norms that keep an organization traditional. Material carriers are the routines and systems that function to keep everything the way it always was. The two act together to create stodgy workplaces.

What’s the vaccine? Well, that seems to be a bit of an individual difference. It depends on the decision makers in the organization. Some people simply approach the possibility of change differently. You can be the kind of person who seeks out new challenges (hint: this is probably the best one to spur innovation), you can preemptively accept change so that you can get used to the system before it becomes compulsory (I like to think of this as the “grin-and-bear-it’ approach), or you can reject everything and stay in your non-innovative (re: vegetative) state. Similarly, organizations can have processes and mechanisms in place that promote change or not. In all of this, the end goal is to have the kinds of people and the kinds of organizational policies that promote innovation.

Now, go forth and conquer the new horizons!

Lepoutre, J. M. W. N., & Valente, M. (2012). Fools breaking out: The role of symbolic and material immunity in explaining institutional nonconformity. Academy of Management Journal, 55, 285-313.

human resource management, organizational industrial psychology, organizational management

 

 

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